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August 30, 2005

Somerville News calls it: Jehlen wins

Link. Mackey gave concession at Orleans restaurant.

I'm looking around for confirmation -- anyone hear anything?

UPDATE: Somerville News also says high voter turnout. Maybe it was the progressive elves working for Jehlen... or just good solid work all around, on a lousy weather day.

Dan Cence, Communications Director for Joseph K. Mackey's campaign, said that as of 2 p.m. there had been 9,440 votes cast in the race for the 2nd Middlesex state Senate seat.

Earlier this week, the estimable sco wrote:

Last year the late Senator Shannon ran unopposed in the primary and 11,840 people in his district turned out. If that many show up on Tuesday, it would be heavier turnout than I'd expect.

Looks like that's what happened. Although I find it strange that a four-way race wouldn't get a lot more than an unopposed primary, even under peculiar circumstances and not-so-great weather.

Will post final numbers when I see them.

So... What Does It All Mean?

UPDATE II: All right, here's my null hypothesis: After Sciortino's victory and Schofield's near-miss, this shows that a nouveau-"progressive" movement, awakened by Howard Dean (who was, after all, awakened by the horror of the Bush era) and matured during the '04 national elections, now has tipping-point electoral-organizational critical-mass in the greater Boston area. In other words, Pat got her "progressive" ducks in a row early, who quacked merrily on to victory. Is that nuts?</McLaughlin>

UPDATE III: esteemed commenter Ron Newman posts thusly:

---
The following are unofficial totals now being displayed on Somerville City Cable channel 16:

District-wide:
Jehlen - 7117
Mackey - 4984
Callahan - 4122
Casey - 2457

Somerville only:
Jehlen - 4190
Mackey - 3109
Callahan - 570
Casey - 278

Posted by Charley on the MTA at 09:35 PM in Massachusetts | Permalink

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Comments

It means of course that Bill White is the next senator from 2nd Middlesex.

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:00:05 PM

I'm still alive. Barely

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:00:47 PM

Jet's get the chant going.
Biillll White, Billll White, Billlll White, Billl White, Billllll White, Billlll White.
He da man.

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:03:41 PM

Ahhhh Now I can sleep tonight knowing Bill White is somewhere out there fighting for me.

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:04:32 PM

turnout was 17000 and Jehlen kicked everyones ass.
Except Bill White
My man!

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:13:12 PM

Pat's victory was announced at her party at Anthony's function hall at 9:05 pm, little over an hour after the polls closed.

Joe Mackey came to Pat's party and gave a very gracious and well-received speech supporting Pat.

Posted by: Ron Newman | Aug 30, 2005 10:13:34 PM

OK, I've got to tell you all that this is VERY BIG NEWS for me.

A few months ago, I started my own political action committee. I was tired of the fact that people I cared about had so much trouble raising money. I've raised a couple thousand from friends all over the country who are willing to humor me.

At Leo Maley's suggestion, I looked at the State Senate special election. After due consideration, I decided to support Pat Jehlen. Later posts will talk about the ups and downs of this decision.

Somewhere in my heart of hearts, I believed, wisely or no, that the results of this first foray would be a harbinger about the wisdom of doing this.

To say that I'm VERY HAPPY is an understatement. I'm looking forward to telling all my donors that we WON!

Posted by: Margie Ware | Aug 30, 2005 10:17:52 PM

Charlie Shannon was unopposed inhis primary, but a lot of people turned out for other primaries in his Senate district on the same day -- most notably, the Ciampa-Sciortino fight.

Posted by: Ron Newman | Aug 30, 2005 10:21:03 PM

Not so fast my dear Margie. Does not the name Bill White strike a chord with you.
No, not the former New York Yankee Bill White. The republican senate candidate Bill White. If I were you I would just tell your donors you got by tound one.

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:26:05 PM

my rule of thumb on turnout is 5000 voters per rep district per average primary day. The go from there more or less.

Posted by: The troll | Aug 30, 2005 10:27:32 PM

As much as I like Bill White (and expect to vote for him for Alderman-at-Large in November), there is no way he can put together a campaign in four weeks to beat Pat Jehlen. I'm not convinced he's even going to try.

Posted by: Ron Newman | Aug 30, 2005 10:35:40 PM

The following are unofficial totals now being displayed on Somerville City Cable channel 16:

District-wide:

Jehlen - 7117
Mackey - 4984
Callahan - 4122
Casey - 2457


Somerville only:

Jehlen - 4190
Mackey - 3109
Callahan - 570
Casey - 278

Posted by: Ron Newman | Aug 30, 2005 10:43:03 PM

Wow. Surprising showing for Callahan, although I guess he had some organization ... and fire trucks, I hear -- though not city trucks.

How do you just up and rent a fire truck? Can kids get one for the prom?

Posted by: Charley on the MTA | Aug 30, 2005 10:57:21 PM

I agree, with your initial analysis, Charley. I just posted over at my blog that there were three winners of this primary: Pat Jehlen, the organized progressive democratic movement in the state; and the political bloggers -- especially BLG -- that helped stimulate interest in a special election in the dog days of August.

The political community will certainly take note.

Posted by: Frederick Clarkson | Aug 30, 2005 11:02:26 PM

ooops! BMG

Posted by: Frederick Clarkson | Aug 30, 2005 11:03:49 PM

Any chance that Mackey becomes a candidate to replace Jehlen if she wins the seat?

Or are there any other obvious contenders for the state rep seat?

Posted by: PatrickA | Aug 30, 2005 11:06:24 PM

Ha! Fred, you're a good guy to come over here with some bloggy sweet talk. :)

I don't know if we at BMG had much effect on the outcome, frankly. I think, as I said above, that Jehlen and friends were able to out-fundraise, out-message and out-organize the others.

If anything, I think folks who came here might have been more willing to give Mackey a second look, rather than assume that Pat was the only prog choice. And of course, the Globe and other endorsements helped him as well. So maybe that helped boost overall turnout.

Posted by: Charley on the MTA | Aug 30, 2005 11:17:29 PM

Now this is no time to get all humble on us Charley. You guys rocked on your coverage of this race. (even if you did go wishywashy on making a choice!).

Competetive primaries help with voter interest and thus turnout. Media coverage of the candidates, the campaign, and so on, helps too. The MA blogosphere is playing a growing role. The first press release I got as a blogger was from Pat Jehlen's campaign -- you too as I recall.

Polititians are noticing. We are helping make politics interesting. We also call the MSM on thier shit;-)

Posted by: Frederick Clarkson | Aug 30, 2005 11:30:50 PM

"We are helping make politics interesting."

Well, speaking for myself, that's definitely true.

Posted by: Charley on the MTA | Aug 30, 2005 11:34:47 PM

I made the decision to endorse Pat Jehlen for a number of reasons. I canvassed on multiple occasions for Pat and staffed a phone bank for her. I volunteered all day on primary day. I urge people to get out there and volunteer. Special elections offer an opportunity to work in a variety of campaigns. Today I volunteered in an urban area in a campaign that relied heavily on door knocking. My home environment is a very suburban. One can read about variuous strategies, but one learns a lot, being out there in the trenches, working the same turf all day. Even in one day, you can develop a relationship with the voters in the district. I drove a couple to the polls at noon. During my 7 PM pass, their son still had not voted. Because I had a rapport with them, I was able to ask them to call their son at work and remind him that he needed to vote before 8 PM.

The point I am tryng to make, is get out there and get involved. If not to support a candidate you believe in, then do it to develop your campaign skills.

Posted by: Volunteer | Aug 31, 2005 12:02:55 AM

Charley, If there is a "nouveau 'progressive' movement" in Massachusetts, I would suggest that is was awakened by Robert Reich's campaign, not Howard Dean's.

Peter

Posted by: Peter Dolan | Aug 31, 2005 6:34:40 AM

Joe Mackey told the Boston Globe he was done with politics.

So, who's going to be the first to declare for Pat Jehlen's House seat?

Posted by: Brittain33 | Aug 31, 2005 7:57:52 AM

Another big winner last night: Carl Sciortino. The right-wingers in Medford who still can't believe he won and want to take him down next year just got a reminder of the type of following he and Pat Jehlen have in their districts and can mobilize for an election. "He's gay" and "I've lived here longer" isn't going to be enough to beat him, not with the good work he's been doing as rep., and will probably make his voters all the more likely to come out.

Posted by: Brittain33 | Aug 31, 2005 8:03:25 AM

Based on what I heard at last night's victory party, I expect Alderman Denise Provost to run for Pat's House seat. I'm sure there will be others.

I too wondered whether Joe Mackey would run, but his remarks in today's Globe seem to rule that out.

And yes, the Reich campaign did a lot to mobilize left-wing political activists around here. Progressive Democrats of Somerville (PDS) is a direct outgrowth of the Reich campaign.

Posted by: Ron Newman | Aug 31, 2005 8:15:12 AM

Peter and Ron, you're right. The DFA/DFMa groups were the Deanies, and the ProgDem groups were the Reich folks. But I think that the '04 race in general really upped the ante for activism. I know that's what got David and me into it.

I'm suggesting that MA is interesting in that those new groups of people may actually be able to (A.) tip the balance in many cases, and (B.) are always around to influence the debate. In other states, the local progs may well be able to do (B.) but not (A.) (B.) is actually more important anyway, to my mind.

Can we get their help on health care? ;)

Posted by: Charley on the MTA | Aug 31, 2005 8:45:37 AM

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