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September 24, 2005
"Internet advantage"?
In which my bloggy navel-gazing meets the Boston Globe... from the Globe's article on the challenges of the Deval Patrick campaign, I found this comment interesting:
''If our opponents think they can continue to cherry-pick short-term data as some kind of old-school evidence that they can beat us, we can't wait for the day when we are only seeing them in our rearview mirror," Byrd said. ''Our evidence is our grass-roots advantage, our Internet advantage, our million dollars raised since April, and our issue focus."
OK... so that internet advantage? That's us, and his pretty decent site. The question is whether he'll be able to leverage that, and his doubtless enthusiastic volunteer base, into getting wider name recognition and support. While I would love to toot the horn of this site and all the other MA lefty blogs, my impression is that our readership is small, deep, dedicated and possibly influential -- but not broad.
sco has a good breakdown of where the polls are for the Dem candidates, and Patrick is still pretty much unknown. Right now, frankly I don't see that many Deval Patrick bumper stickers, name tags, (neckties, samplers, stained-glass windows, tattoos, anything ), i.e. things that bump up his name recognition. So perhaps right now his campaign is based on depth, but lacks breadth. Is this a problem that needs to be instantly addressed, or is it by design?
Here's a future-tense variant on my null-hypothesis explanation of recent progressive victories in the lege: The Deval Patrick campaign will be the most significant test of whether the "progressive" elements are able to broaden their influence to something beyond low-turnout local races, which leverage high levels of organization of a handful of mobilizable constituencies.
In other words, the progs are deep, but can they be broad? They've got a heck of a candidate, but he's leaning pretty hard on them. I'd love to know the strategy.
Posted by Charley on the MTA at 09:34 PM in Massachusetts | Permalink
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Comments
Did you read that great endorsement the Herald, via the Somerville news, gave Pat Jehlen today?
I think Deval Patrick has peaked.
Strike that.
I know Deval Patrick has peaked.
Bill Galvin v. Kery Healy and Galvin taken it in November.
That's what I say.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 25, 2005 12:54:44 AM
Ah, the old expectations game.
Everyone expects Deval Patrick who started out with no money, no staff, no name recognition, no nothing to be on top of his game a few months into his campaign, and a year ahead of the primary.
From where I sit, he's doing pretty damn well. And wisely, he is not even bothering to reply to the CW, which nose fully in the air, thinks he should never have run in the first place. Hail King Reilly!
Posted by: Frederick Clarkson | Sep 25, 2005 2:31:32 AM
Fred, I do not know what the the "CW" is.
But maybe he looks great to you from where you sit in western MA. But here in the developed world, anyone who looks at his campaign will say DEval has problems. Big deal he is getting "grassroots" suport. In this campaign, that just means he has a shitload of kids just out of college who don't have jobsd and this will help their resume. Plus it is fun and they may just get laid.
He is not have any "grassroots" support from any elected officials, including city and town officials. Any "grassroots" support from anyone over tha age of 40? 50? 60?
Bill Galvin will get in to this soon i bet and clean Deval's clock. - That doesn't mean I am aGalvin fan.
You say that deval started out with no money and no name recognition and he is now doing well considering those factors.
Mitt Romney had no name recogmition and no money, Bill Weld had no name recognition and no money, Kerry Healy had no name recognition and no money. Chris Gabrielli had no name recognition and no money.
But, like Deval they had personal wealth and a lot of rich and conected friends. So from our collective experiences with wealthy candidates with "no money" and name recognition, Deval should be doing much better then this pathetic campaign he is running. - Is he still calling in to his own house parties?
Fred, I hope you guys in western MA are getting the CARE packages and the money we send to Sally Stuthers. Good luck in your efforts to join the developed world.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 25, 2005 9:23:53 AM
Hi Frederick -- I'm glad you commented, because even though I didn't mention it in the post, I obviously wrote this with a sideways glance at the PDM endorsement. I think we can agree that the Patrick campaign will be the biggest challenge yet for the progs, and that requires a dialogue with voters who are not the natural base for a progressive candidate. The candidate is very persuasive on his own; but PDM et al. needs to do its own persuasion, one person at a time. How do they do that? I'm curious, not necessarily skeptical.
And you're absolutely right, the self-fulfilling prophecies of conventional wisdom are Patrick's biggest enemy. With a less-talented candidate, I might worry about that. But in this case, he's got plenty of time.
Posted by: Charley on the MTA | Sep 25, 2005 9:38:28 AM
I think it is unlikely Deval (or any campaign for that matter) can really have peaked this early on. It is 14 months from the election, most of the people are not even tuned in. What matters most is that Deval (or any candidate) be there when they do--which is around caucus time in my opinion.
It appears to me, what his campaign is doing is laying the groundwork against the "default candidates" which is what he has to do. Reilly has a staff and an office and an existing organization (which he shouldn't be using but does.) Deval had to build one, and by the looks of it he has.
And while Deval faces name recognition issues, Reilly still faces that personality/gang of three problem. I have yet to see him do anything other than grandstand on publicity cases--look at how he waited to the last minute on the gay marriage ballot innitiative (which he was legally wrong on, btw). That's typical Tom. Gather the cameras and hold a book and get into "look at me" mode.
As for Galvin what has he done other than chime in to a story here or there? He might not even run. We should also not overlook the fact that Galvin is pro-life. I can't see the Dems in this state putting up with that. I know I won't. That's pretty core stuff.
Posted by: Anon | Sep 25, 2005 10:09:14 AM
Hey Troll, easy on western Massachusetts. Sweeping generalizations (i.e. Massachusetts liberal) don't do anyone any good.
As to the argument that the blogosphere is going to be a factor for the Patrick campaign, I'd tend to agree. But what does that force bring to the table, as a whole? This isn't me questioning the ability or dedication of internet activists, I just don't see how concentrating the efforts of people who would generally be politically active anyway, produces a dynamic that changes elections.
Posted by: BelmontStreetBen | Sep 25, 2005 8:04:44 PM
Charley, Unlike the stereotype of progressives who are more about talk than action, PDM is about helping to provide a field organization for our candidate, where we can. Patrick in turn, is more about having an actual statewide field organization than any candidate I have ever seen for any statewide office. Patrick is wise to play his game and not the expectations game. Actually talking to voters, what a concept.
As for the above comment about blogs, its true that blogging alone accomplishes litte. But to the extent that the blogs are providing an alternative media, and a way of extending and advancing political conversation in the state, and help people to engage in electoral life, they are playing a vital role that is amost impossible to measure. The ocasional troll not withstanding.
Posted by: Frederick Clarkson | Sep 25, 2005 8:23:05 PM
Two comments:
1. National blogs have also dabbled with Deval, including dailykos. While Mass blogs will be doing most of the work and it's likely that national blogs will only serve up the great state pieces (and not write their own), the national attention may get Deval some donors, and it will get him some money. How much? Who knows. Some is better than none.
2. He is not have any "grassroots" support from any elected officials, including city and town officials. Any "grassroots" support from anyone over tha age of 40? 50? 60?
He's got it all over Brookline, MA. One thing that some town Dems are doing is laying groundwork for any democratic governor candidate -- because even a moderate or conservative Dem is better than a GOoPer. However, they're hoping like hell that the Dem nominee will be Deval. Is this true to a person in Brookline? Of course not. However, nearly everyone involved with Brookline Dems I've spoken with favors Deval...
Posted by: stomv | Sep 26, 2005 7:16:05 AM
Troll, did you just say that Mitt Romney had no money? The guy is loaded on a completely different level than anyone the Democrats could put up. Plus, he came into the 2002 race after getting a lot of national exposure from the Olympics. Plus, at this point in 2001, a Romney candidacy was still a pipe dream for state Republicans. They were searching frantically for an anti-Swift at this point in the election cycle.
It's a year before the primary. The only people paying attention are nerds like us. I think Patrick is spending too much money, but there's time to correct that. A year in politics is half a lifetime and making preditctions this far out is a good way to look foolish.
Posted by: sco | Sep 26, 2005 7:49:29 AM
I'd like to see how Deval plays with those citizens of the commonwealth who voted in 2002 election. The gubenatorial races seem to bring out a different breed of voters than other statewide races, especially those for federal office.
This, I think, is the greatest strength for the Reilly campaign. There is a statewide organization in place, strategic support for the DA's, and a vast majority of the elected officials, at all levels, are on-board.
Now, I'm not saying it's a homerun, but if the Patrick campaign is based on the "turnout" theory (i.e. theres a lot of voters out there and if we just make them all come up our guy will certainly win) I think they should look back to the lessons of the 2004 Presidential. Turnout alone isn't a strategy, its just a start.
Posted by: BelmontStreetBen | Sep 26, 2005 8:09:10 AM
I don't think the expectations game comes into play until the convention next year, and that those expectations are far from being set. That said, the convention is an insiders/organizational game and that delegates probably do not represent the general electorate too well. Patrick got the biggest "wow" response at this last convention; clearly he appealed strongly to the delegates. We also saw that in a small straw poll down on the South Shore, Deval easily bested the field. While not in and of itself significant, it is again perhaps indicative of the activists view of the race.
I've heard all three candidates and all of them acknowledge that the Dems have to reach out better to all voters. Patrick phrases it in the sense that we need to decide what we want government to provide and then how to pay for it. When the discussion focuses on services, well hell yeah, people want services.
Posted by: Steven Leibowitz | Sep 26, 2005 9:23:35 AM
Thinking out loud, bear with me...
Here's another way of asking the question... we're looking at different kinds of capital. Reilly's got money capital, as does Healey. Patrick's got *social* capital in some influential areas, e.g. the Dem Committees and active folks in the Brooklines and Cambridges and Northamptons.
I know how one uses money capital to create plurality support. In a high-profile, high-expense, and (relatively) geographically far-flung race like the gubernatorial, how is this social capital used to get to a plurality? Not to be a troll myself, but is the Patrick campaign depending on 22-year-olds knocking on doors?
The religious right has figured out how to leverage social relations, which of course translates into bucks and votes. Rove used an Amway-style pyramid-vote-getting scheme to win (?) Ohio.
It seems to me that liberals need to re-create institutions, formal and informal, to create *social* webs of influence and affinity -- things that draw people in because they provide mutual support, or because they're fun or rewarding. Unions have always been our big social capital center, and as they've waned in numbers and influence, so has the Democratic Party, at least nationally.
Is Drinking Liberally the next influential lefty social capital center? Our group of MA lefty blogs? Progressive Dems of MA? Will there be a Deval Patrick bowling league? Democrat summer camps for the kiddos?
IOW, if Patrick is depending on the grassroots, the grassroots will need to expand their influence *at the grassroots level*. That means making friends among jes' folks like us, and making it "cool" to support Patrick. I think we have to look beyond $$$ and canvassing, to be more creative.
Posted by: Charley on the MTA | Sep 26, 2005 9:45:44 AM
I'll take you one at a time.
Anon,
"laying the groundwork " against default candidates? Huh? He hasn't reached out and personally met with 10 state reps or 20 selectmen in this state. I see no ground work
Your point is basicly Reilly is an incompetent maedia hog, and has the power of his elected position. This makes Deval better? Are you saying Deval is a victim because Reilly is useing his political office for his political benefit?
As for Galvin,
"what has he done other than chime in to a story here or there?":
Is you have followed what he has done the past 8 years and understood the powers of his office, he is tyhe only candidate who has a real record. And he will commit to nog disrupting the current abortion laws in this state b ut favor parental consent. You won't be able to paint him as a right wing nut.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:28:28 AM
Belmont street Ben
Lighten Up. Are ypou from Belmont St. in Worcestr. Is that why sensitive to western, mass.
Yes, the slow witted cousin of the dumb witted.
Don't put much into Reilly's "organization" Outside of him and the inner office "braintrust" he a has a bunch of members of the middlesex county and state defense bar, and a bunch of former Nazi prosecutors. Nobody that will work hard for him. I don't see alot of reps ands senators running to him. Tell me Belmont, who has?
Once this gets going so WON"T his organization!
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:33:53 AM
Steve Leib,
"I don't think the expectations game comes into play until the convention next year"
That is the problem, the person who beats the repub in november is the candidate that takes his 15% and tells the party to screw and goes home. You can have the nomonation with the litmus test 3 issues. Give your 100% allegiance to the teachers party. That is the losing recipe.
The WOW Patrick got the dem state convention is a kiss of death in ovember.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:37:32 AM
Fred,
You said
a blog is "a way of extending and advancing political conversation in the state, and help people to engage in electoral life, they are playing a vital role that is amost impossible to measure. The ocasional troll not withstanding."
So, you can't laugh at yourself. The typicals stereotypical ultra liberal? The whole weight of the world on your shoulders. And when I disagree you ignore the argumet and attack. Hmmmm
that is lame.
As for this great PDM grass roots organization, It doesn;t work unless that organization includes people who are respected in the commmunity. Not the tree huggers and naive recent college grads (at best)you guys have knocking on doors. Not the same ole same ole local activists that everone knows and expects, and pays no attention to.
You need local elected officials, and people that are repsected locally that are not usually involved in politics. You need that combination state wide. And right now Deval should be personally talking to thousands of those peole. Sending them notes. And calling them back.
But he is not. He is having Chad from Northwestern U. calling Sully from Billerica and asking him if he'll have a house party for Deval. And DSeval will "call in".
Deval Patrick has peaked.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:47:45 AM
Storm V
You should try and get to tknow this state and Brookline's position, if you will, in it.
"Is this true to a person in Brookline? Of course not. However, nearly everyone involved with Brookline Dems I've spoken with favors Deval..."
These are the people that read this blog. Stoe
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:54:03 AM
Sco, Sco Sco Sco
Yeah, Romney had money, personal wealth, like the others. And had you been here a few years ago, you would recall that no one ever herard of Romney in April and in November he had some legitamate pundidts thinking he was going to beat Ted Kennedy. He did that with personal wealth.
Deval has personal wealth and he has to step up to the plate. Not $500,000. Let's see $2 milliom plus. That will get people excited.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:57:47 AM
Charley, state wide fights in Mass especially govs, have nothing to do with religious right.
As Coach Lomabardi said.."I want you to pay attention to this game, son"
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 10:59:35 AM
Why Deval won't win.
He is like the spoiled only child. Yes he grew up in projects, but when he left that and went to Milton Academy he became a star and everyone wanted to know him,(of course racist exceptions) be his friend, be associated with "the black kid from chicago" Make things easy for him. His brains and connections and background got him into ivy league schools, but strings were pulled. Then he followed that to a nice boston law firm, then to Clinton white house then given nice job at Coke in a position that preyed upon his race. His resume and race made him in demand. And seriosly, these jobs were handed to him. He has been taken care of by others sense the first prep school application was sent out. Not a knock, he is smart. But soft. Like a rich kid, who has been handed a lot but. Not a real leader and becomes lazy.
He has no idea how much work he has to do to get elected. He can't rely on others like he has in the past. He has to make thousands of personal connections. He wants to run this race like small Presidential campaign. In reality it is big state reps race.
If he doesn't pump it up his Clinton friends like Robert Reich will start rolling there eyes as his campaign continu\es to depend upon them.
Deval Patrick has peaked.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 11:08:41 AM
Sco, by money, I mean money raised and in campaign account.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 11:18:24 AM
hey troll, No time! All us tree hugging recent college grads from underdeveloped countries with no jobs are out there networking like crazy in hopes of making the right connection through the Deval campaign. Uh, who is the mayor of my town?
That the gist of your political analysis? Whew. I give up! You are so right, Patrick is soooo over!
Oh wait a minute! What am I thinking! You have no idea what you are talking about!
Damn. You almost had me there, whew.
So if I understand your comments on this thread, by your measure Patrick isn't doing anything right. He's smart, but he's lazy, and he hasn't got the chops to run a decent campaign because he has had, you claim, everthing in life handed to him since prep school.
Cool.
I love it when my candidate is underestimated. I hope your views are widely held among his opponents.
Advantage, Patrick.
Posted by: Frederick Clarkson | Sep 26, 2005 11:34:29 AM
Fred, you didn't argue with me. You just made fun of me. Where are you rebuttals. You cherry picked my points to turn me into "a hater". Tired old liber/treehugger trick, Fred.
Aren't you some famous blogger/author/radio personality/editorial contributor?
I had a point about Deval Patrick being not a good candidate. You have knowmn
Rebut my arguments in a grown -up point by point way. I assume you can. You fancy yourself an intellectual. Your bove comment attacking my points regarding the governors race have notheing to offer.
Let's see some real insight on this issue Fred.
Sop far your response is very disappointing to say the least, but is actually immature.
Give me youy best shot on the merits.
By the way, underestimated candidates usually are not undewr estimated by those following the campaign closely. Like us. What do we have that is positive, that would say I am understimating him.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 11:51:31 AM
Fred. "Hail King Reilly"
Where are you watching this from?
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 11:52:47 AM
Fred,
I just don't see Deval working hard himself. He personally hasn;t reached out. He is not pressing the flesah with people who can help him get voteds if they want to.
He is not a rock star. But the progressives have fallen in love with him.
Boy, there's a surprise.
Posted by: The troll | Sep 26, 2005 11:58:05 AM
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